Today’s post is a bit of a departure for Data on the Rocks. Instead of simply presenting some data with an accompanying analogy, this post is a statistical prediction. The Academy Awards are this Sunday, and the big question as always is which film is going to win Best Picture. The Oscars are notoriously hard to predict, with an eclectic voting body and an atypical voting process. Plus, who can forget the drama last year when La La Land was incorrectly announced as Best Picture instead of the true winner, Moonlight? This animated graphic shows the predicted winner of Best Picture from a statistical model. The model is based on many factors including: the Rotten Tomatoes “All Critics” and “Top Critics” scores, Oscar nominations for other categories, and other major awards nominations/wins. Each point represents the best guess for the probability of a win, and the grey bars represent the uncertainty. After the Golden Globes, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri appeared to be the heavy favorite; however, this came with a high degree of uncertainty. The Shape of Water then racked up some wins with the Critics Choice, Producers Guild, and Directors Guild Awards which are historically pretty good predictors of the Oscars top prize. After all the dust settled, The Shape of Water is the modest favorite with around a 50% chance of winning but followed closely by Three Billboards with around a 30% chance.
Data on the Rocks 