As a candidate and as president, Donald Trump has made wildly exaggerated claims about unemployment in America. The graph on the left shows the unemployment rate since 2001 and, for a broader measure of those seeking work, the graph also shows the rate of unemployment plus underemployment*. As of last month, these two rates are 4.7% and 9.2% respectively. Trump, on the other hand, has claimed rates ranging from 20% to 42%. By this degree of exaggeration, Trump would claim that the average height of an American male (about 5′ 10″ in reality) is over 18 feet tall! And that’s giving Trump the benefit of the doubt that he includes underemployment. If his claims are about only unemployment, it’s as if Trump is claiming the average American male is over 36 feet tall!
* The unemployment plus underemployment rate is the broadest unemployment measure. It includes those who are unemployed, those who are so economically discouraged that they have stopped seeking employment, and those working part-time who wish they were working full-time.
For the data wonks
- Unemployment (U3- [Seas] Unemployment Rate) data can be accessed at https://goo.gl/L9UFqh
- Unemployment plus Underemployment (U6 – [Seas] Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part-time for economic reasons, as a percent of all civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers) data can be accessed at https://goo.gl/SoEtAe
- Details about Trump’s claimed unemployment rate can be found at https://goo.gl/lRhW55 and in video at https://youtu.be/wII90dqsZrM and https://youtu.be/5K_vvwMtc2M
- Dates of the 2008 Recession can be accessed at http://www.nber.org/cycles.html
- To calculate the exaggerated height figure, an exaggeration multiplier was computed based on the average of the various unemployment rates Trump has claimed (29.6%) divided by the most recent U3 or U6 rate. For the U6 rate, Trump’s exaggeration multiplier was 3.22, and for U3 Trump’s exaggeration multiplier was 6.30. These values were then multiplied by the average height of an American Male (5′ 9.5″) resulting in exaggerated heights of 18′ 7.3” and 36′ 5.1″.
Data on the Rocks 
That is really interesting, You are an excessively skilled blogger. I have joined your rss feed and stay up for in quest of extra of your magnificent post. Also, I have shared your website in my social networks!
LikeLike